Zimbabwe: Where To Now?

The summit in Egypt is over and once again the African powers have nothing to show for the event, except perhaps a larger waistline and a few sore heads from the alcohol - are they allowed alcohol in Egypt?

The summit was originally seen as an opportunity for the African leaders to indicate their unhappiness with Mugabe’s rule in Zimbabwe - legal or illegal - but instead we just had a few leaders mumble a few negative comments about Zimbabwe - and that was it!

African leaders claim that Zimbabwe is an “African problem” and therefore deserves an “African solution”… but if the leaders from within the region cannot stand up and say something in criticism of Mugabe, then why the hype?

bdf dveGx 16744

About the only people that said anything worth listening to were the Botswanans. Amid reports that they had deployed members of the Botswanan Defence Forces (BDF) on the border with Zimbabwe, Ian Khama, their President, has stated that he is prepared to use force in Zimbabwe.

Mugabe will dismiss Khama’s comments - no doubt bringing his mixed race into it as well!

Not that Khama will give any cognisance to anything Mugabe has said. He has recognized that the break down of the economy, and with it, law and order, the problem knows no international borders, and that the problem could easily spread into his domain and cause untold damage there.

And Botswana has a good economy record. I doubt that Khama wants the same evil to befall his country. Plus I find it very interesting that Botswana, one of the few African countries that has not lived through a ‘war of liberation’, is the first to resort to a threat of weaponry.

An untested strength and not one that I think Mugabe would like to chance his army against. Mugabe's army is poorly trained, poorly fed and their weaponry is aged.

In conversation with a friend recently, we agreed that South Africa was supposed to be a ‘point man’ and ‘staging point’ for the future intentions of the West in Southern Africa. But much of that thought was extinguished with the advent of a leader such as Thabo Mbeki.

For some unknown reason, Mbeki sides himself with Mugabe, and although he has attempted to resurrect the failed mediations of last year, he is still referred to by the AU and SADC as the Zimbabwean mediator.

The Movement for Democratic Change, the party that has taken a sound beating at the hands of Robert Mugabe’s marauding supporters, refuses to acknowledge Mbeki as a mediator – primarily because he has not been able to achieve one bit of good, but also because Mbeki is not shy in coming forward with his public support of Mugabe and his ZANU PF party.

Which leaves the regional as a whole, and Zimbabwe in particular, in somewhat of a quandary. Where does the political impasse head for now?

This morning, one of Mugabe’s critics allegedly passed away in a Paris hospital. I say allegedly because whilst Reuters reported on it, the Zambian government denies it. Zambian President, Levy Mwanawasa died early this morning having suffered a stroke in Egypt. Mwanawasa also leads the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Interestingly, he was due to issue some stern criticism of Mugabe the day after he fell ill.

We may remember the Lisbon summit last year which culminated in Mugabe taking the Zambian President to task and turning on his heel and walking out.

Now Zambia, another of Zimbabwe’s neighbours, finds itself leaderless, and Mugabe finds himself one critic less.

Funny how these things always happen in Mugabe’s favour… the law of averages states that eventually the cards must fall against him.

Let’s assume that Mwanwasa’s successor proves to be another weak African leader. Then we must assume a victory for Mugabe – as he would have achieved a longitudinal divide through South Africa – being South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia.

A situation that doesn’t even bear thinking about.

Robb WJ Ellis

The Bearded Man