What future for Harawira?

Maverick Maori Party MP Hone Harawira is now the subject of a complaint in parliament from his own caucas, after his very public airing of his concerns about the party's rightward trajectory since its agreement with the right-of-centre National party after the last election. News Talk ZB is reporting that “There are signs MP Hone Harawira could be kicked out” and iPredict, New Zealand's political futures market, is predicting him to win his Te Tai Tokerau seat “as an independent or representing a party other than the Maori Party”. Neither seem to have taken into account the complex nature of the situation, The Maori Party is more democratic than most and Harawira has has huge support among the rank and file, as political commentator Chris Trotter pointed out “No politician would castigate his leaders in the way Mr Harawira has done unless he’s pretty sure that, should push comes to shove, a radicalised and rebellious majority will be shoving his way.” Trotter does hedge his bets a little though, noting that the column was written before the complaint was laid.

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There is some talk of Harawira becoming part of a “new left party” with former Green Party MP, and champion of the unemployed workers movement in the 1990's, and Matt McCarten, former Alliance Party president and current secretary of the radical Unite Union. This does not seem likely, as Chris Trotter noted (and he's certainly not alone on the left in this view- unlike some of his others) Unite's “Another Aoteroa is Possible” conference could have been the launch of such a party, had McCarten done better in the Mana by-election, but the result shows little political space for one. The outcome of these current events will certainly be interesting, but it's unlikely to be a a seismic shift in New Zealand politics.