Turkey Still Going Strong
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Turkey is an enviable nation. Not only is it rich in history, home to one of the world's most incredible city, and bestowed with an abundance of natural beauty. But Turkey is in a prime position - literally - in the age of globalization. Turkey is the border between East and West. Europe and the United States both look to Turkey is a connecting point to the East, and the Arab world invests in Turkey because it considers the nation part of the West.
The Economist provides a thorough analysis of the bright and getting brighter state of affairs in Turkey.
First, the economy. The Turkish economy - like the rest of the world - has not been sparred the global recession. Although employment is rising and the economy is likely to contract in 2009, not a single bank has gone under due to prudent financial regulation. The United States has had several banks gone under, and some saved at the brink. And a new deal with the IMF is expected after this month's elections.
Then there is the question of Turkey and Armenia and the massacre of Ottoman Armenians in 1915. The American-Armenian community is planning to try its chances again in getting the U.S. House of Representative to pass a resolution calling the massacre of 1.5 million Ottoman Armenians during the First World War "genocide." The Turks are furious at the suggestion. No nation wants to be seen in the history books as executing a genocide. The Turks insist that there was no deliberate genocide. The Ottoman Armenians had sided with the Austro-Hungarian empire, the Turks like to remind people, and the Ottoman authorities simply marched the Armenians out of the empire and into the Levant [that is why there are so many Armenians in Lebanon]. That is true, there was no deliberate killings and the 1.5 million died due to hunger and exhaustion along the trail. But the Armenians insist that the Ottoman authorities were excessively cruel and did not care for those who fell along the journey. Either way, the American-Armenian community is well-organized and Barack Obama has come out in favor of a resolution. But Obama endorsed the resolution as a candidate, as a president he must consider the consequences for America's strategic interests were he to offend the Turks: Turkey has threatened to cut U.S. access to a vital Turkish air bases the U.S. air force currently uses for Iraqi operations and the Obama's administrations stepped-up operations in Afghanistan. But come late April or early, the idea of a resolution may very well become moot. Because after the March Turkish elections and the April 24 anniversary of the massacre, Turkey and Armenia are expected to re-establish formal relations and the border between both nations is also expected to open for the first time in years. If the rapprochement between both nation's takes place, the Armenian government will be expected to tell its diaspora to cease with the resolution efforts.
There is also the question of the Kurds. Turkey has had an uneasy relationship with its roughly 15 million Kurds and an often violent one with Iraqi Kurds. The army was fought a war with PKK rebels in northern Iraq since 1984 and in the process the Turkish army has killed as many Kurds as Saddam Hussein has. But things are warming up. The AK party has first reached out to its own Kurds through massive investment in Kurdish cities; building schools, hospitals, new roads, ect... It has also allowed for the first ever 24/7 Kurdish language channel [previously Kurds could only broadcast in their language for 3 hours a day]. Kurds in Turkey today feel more included in the society than ever before. That is why Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was greeted with incredibly cheers at a rally in the Turkish-Kurdish city of Van. Previously Turkish governments had supported an often xenophobic Turkish brand of nationalism, the AK is different and is inclusive to all Turks. Relations with Iraqi Kurds have also greatly improved. The government and the PKK are about to sign a peace deal that they powerful general support. Turkish diplomats have been meeting with their Iraqi-Kurd counterparts and trade between Kurdish Iraq and Turkey reached $7 billion last year. And 50,000 Turkish citizens and 1,200 Turkish firms are doing business in Iraqi Kurdistan.
On membership European Union talks, after stalling a bit, Erdogan has more actively committed himself to EU membership. He has first established the first ever cabinet level position for EU negotiator, giving the job to a young and eloquent English speaker. And when Turkey - as is expected - opens up its sea and airports to Cyprus, thus remaining EU states who oppose Turkish membership [France is at the forefront] will be shamed to at least softening their opposition .
And Erdogan has also recognized that his appearance at Davos - while the wording was proper - his mannerism were undiplomatic. Erdogan has hired a public representative and is reaching out to foreign journalists for the first time. And Erdogan has also returned to his pragmatic former-self, a man interested in problem solving and moving Turkey forward.
Turkey is a country on the forward march. All this and did I mention that Turkey is incredibly beautiful?
