The Sunset Of Mugabe's Rule

There can be no doubt in anyone's minds that the Mugabe rule is coming to an end. Whether he is removed from office by democratic means, or dies, the end must be in sight.

Obviously, this is not an end to Zimbabwe's problems as ZANU PF still exists and they, as a party, insist that they alone have a God given right to rule Zimbabwe...

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"Like it or hate it, the truth is that the countdown to the end of Robert Mugabe's iron fist rule of Zimbabwe has just started, albeit unofficially. Going by reports that Mugabe had difficulties in getting off a chartered Air Zim flight to Livingstone and that he had to use a golf cart to move accompanied by massive entourage of 60 plus, ZANU PF needs to act with speed and find a replacement sooner rather than later. In contrast to Mugabe's huge entourage other leaders had smaller delegations e.g. 12 for Jacob Zuma and only 4 for Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.

Ironically, the beginning of the end was signaled by Robert Mugabe himself when he attacked his long time ally and SADC accusing them of interfering in Zimbabwe's internal affairs when he was addressing a meeting of his ZANU PF party in Harare on Friday 1st April 2011. Saying that he won't brook interference, Mugabe may not have known that he had lit a fire he would not be able to put out.

To make matters worse like adding fuel to the fire, the ZANU PF orientated Sunday Mail was not going to watch it's leader fighting a lone battle. In statements attributed by news agencies to the Sunday Mail which has been inaccessible online for several months except the Herald and the not so-up-to-date Zimpapers frontpage, the paper accused President Zuma, the SADC mediator on the Zimbabwe crisis of being a dishonest broker and of betraying Africa by voting for a no-fly zone over Libya at the United Nations Security Council.

"Mr Zuma's duplicity is astounding. With such leaders, Africa is in mortal danger," the paper is quoted as saying in its attack on the South African leader (The Zimbabwe Mail, 03/04/11).

Words like that can never be exchanged between friendly countries even when they may not have been officially communicated. In fact the way the government controlled media communicated what amounts to the "party's response to the SADC Troika's communique" contributed to a major diplomatic fiasco which had been started by the Supreme Leader."

The original broker of the Zimbabwean crisis was Thabo Mbeki. Having hammered out an agreement (of sorts) between the two MDC formations and ZANU PF. There was much jubilation and celebration when the GPA was signed by Mugabe, Tsvangirai, Mutambara and Mbeki.

Then Jacob Zuma was elected President of South Africa and he also took over the mediation role in the Zimbabwean crisis. Mugabe and his party have tied him up in knots and have refused to even come to the negotiation table, claiming that there will be no more talks before what they terms 'illegal economic' sanctions are lifted.

Mugabe and his party had made numerous concessions before walking away from the table, and those concessions remain unimplimented.

What is preventing them from being brought into effect? You guessed it... Sanctions.

So, in two years, ZANU PF have been a lot of hot air, and broken promises - which falls in line with their genetic make-up.

"By playing down the diplomatic tiff claiming relations between the two countries remained 'warm and cordial', Jacob Zuma's office risks playing double speak on Mugabe and being seen as indeed weakness in dealing with a dictator who is on his way out albeit reluctantly. As a sign that Zimbabwe's neighbour south of the Limpopo was far from amused by the undiplomatic language from Harare, Zuma's office reminded that governments have their own channels of communication.

Considering the sacrifices South Africa has made for Zimbabwean refugees and more specifically how Jacob Zuma has gone out of his way to try to rescue Robert Mugabe from the mess that he is in, even an infant would never be expected to misfire like Mugabe's propagandists did with their overkill."

We are often reminded that Mugabe and Zuma are good friends, but Zuma's patience must be running a bit thin. Especially when Mugabe has made statements that virtually throw the GPA out of the window.

Having signed the agreement, Mugabe is now saying that the mediator is there to assist, not dictate. But Mugabe is the dictator, not SADC, and it is Mugabe who is refusing to stand by his own signature.

Finally, the African people see Mugabe for what he really is. A sad, old, angry politician who believes in his own immortality and tolerates no one who seeks to see the long awaited freedom for the Zimbabwean people.

Just as we see long term governments falling in North Africa, Mugabe has to tread very carefully. I am not suggesting a popular uprising, but he does find himself being found wanting by the Zimbabwean people, the very people that he claims voted him into power.

"The remaining question is: Why is Jacob Zuma so protective of Robert Mugabe even at his own expense?"

There can be no argument that sunsets are a glorious, incredibly beautiful affair... why do I get the feeling that this is one sunset that will not fall within that description?

Robb WJ Ellis

The Bearded Man