The End of Turkey-Israel Relationship?

Turkey was the second Muslim country to recognize Israel. And, unlike Egypt and Jordan, it did so back in 1949 (one year after Iran) and recognized Israel in accordance with standard diplomatic practice as opposed to signing a peace treaty after years of wars and in order to regain land and pacify a border.

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As a founding member of NATO, a regional power and a possible EU member in the future, Israel has long valued relations with Turkey. The two nations have growing trade relations (at over $3 billion in 2008), an agreement in the 1990s allows Israeli jets to train in Turkish skies, the Turkish military buys supplies from Israeli firms, and in 2007 seven percent of the Israeli public were tourists in Turkey. And Turkey's growing clout in the region will ease Israeli normalization with its Arab neighbors (when and if that day comes).

So important is Turkey to Israel that the powerful pro-Israel lobby works to lobby on behalf of Turkey when requested. For instance, when the U.S. Congress was considering at resolution to label the deaths of Ottoman Armenians a “genocide” to the great protest of the Turkish government, it was in part Israel’s effective lobby that killed the bill.

But in recent months relations have been strained. Turkey’s President Erdogan strongly criticized Israel’s massacre of Palestinians in Gaza - over 900 civilians killed over 400 of them children - and decried that nations that behave like Israel will be removed from the world. The Israeli government, keen to avoid a confrontation with a critically ally; tends to ignore just comments as nothing more than emotional rhetoric. This public criticism is matched by Turkish contact with Hamas, though not financial support.

Turkey’s president clashed with Israel’s President Shimon Peres in a Davos World Economic Forum debate on the Middle East. The former eventually walked off the stage, and the two later exchanged calls reflecting that while words got heated both nations remain allies.

The relationship is currently tense. The Turkish foreign minister recently canceled a trip to Israel after his request to cross into Israel via Gaza was denied by an Israeli government keen to avoid any legitimization of Hamas.

Currently, both Turkey and Israel gain more from the relationship than they would from ceasing it. Israel has a trading partner, and a regional ally whose clout will only increase. While Israel offers Turkey little benefits in regional terms, it can currently rely on Israeli weight in Washington to defend Turkish interests. If Turkey would cut off relations the Israel lobby may seek to make Turkey suffer consequences by lobbying for the aforementioned Armenian "genocide" resolution.

But if the Palestinians continue to be repressed, then relations will be furthered tested. Turkey is now more pro-Palestinian than any Arab government - no exaggeration. Arab leaders were either quietly supportive or complacent toward Israel’s attack on the Palestinians in Gaza. Turkey is a democracy and reflections popular opinion, which is staunchly pro-Palestinian. If Israel fails to make peace with the Palestinians, it is hard to see how Turkish parliaments will maintain relations with Israel.

Turkey may never entirely scrap its relations with Israel, at least not for a while. But for all intents and purposes that may be the case. Given the actions and intentions of Israel's far-right government that is staunchly opposed to a genuine, viable Palestinian state it is likely that the Turkish people will begin to move toward a cold-diplomacy with Israel akin to Egypt's relations with the Jewish state. In a reflection of where the relationship may be headed: a joint military exercise was canceled recently.

Such actions should concentrate the minds of Israelis into accepting a Palestinian state the way Palestinians have accepted Israel. The end of the Turkey-Israel relationship would only further isolate Israel not just in the region, but in the world turning the nation into more of a walled, xenophobic Jewish ghetto as opposed to a thriving normal country.