Tearing Down Mubarak

The lowly desperate candidate.

Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak is desperate to install his son - Gamal Mubarack - as his successor. So much so that he has been bending over to flatter the Americans and Israelis. Arab regimes believe the path to Washington’s heart leads through Tel Aviv. So Egypt is punishing the Palestinians on Israel’s behalf in order to avoid a backlash from Washington and secure future favors.

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Egypt’s regime, lets remember, is collectively punishing Palestinians on its side of the Gaza border in a country where nearly everyone is a staunch supporter of the Palestinians. And the U.S. and Israel need Mubarak to ignore popular will and punished the Palestinians if he is to be granted support: In a free Egypt, there would be no joint effort with Israel to limit food and supplies into Gaza and with Egypt’s Sinai border open the Israeli scheme would crumble.

And Gamal Mubarak may be counted on by Israel and the United States to be another aid-receiving, subservient client.

But his chances are quite slim in the Egyptian regime:

...Gamal, has played a remarkably prominent role in the ruling NDP for the past decade and often appears at his father’s side. Officially third in the party’s command structure, the 47-year-old former banker has long been assumed to be his father’s intended successor. Changes to the constitution introduced in 2007, allowing a select few candidates to emerge for presidential elections, were widely seen as a fix. The senior Mr Mubarak had repeatedly promised that there would be no “inherited” presidency, and the new arrangements make it possible for his son to be duly elected.

That may still happen, although many Egyptians believe that Gamal Mubarak’s chances are waning. He is a serious, competent manager and runs charity schemes that help the poor. Egypt’s successful economic liberalisation, too, bears his imprimatur. Supporters note that he is Western-educated, has lived abroad (his mother is half-Welsh) and, unlike every past president, is a civilian. But others see his apparent distance from the still-powerful army as a handicap. Not only does the younger Mubarak lack his father’s earthy charm, they add, but the wider public is showing an increasing aversion to dynastic politics.

Some think that the regime’s ageing inner circle might prefer to back a more seasoned figure from their own ranks.

But the biggest obstacle is the Egyptian people, who rightly cannot even stand his face:

Promotionals of Egyptian Coalition for Support of Gamal Mubarak torn out, Dakahliya, August 7, 2010. Apparently, an act showing a wide popular reaction against Mubarak Jr.'s running for presidency, following his father, posters bear statements such as: "For Egypt, Egypt's Good, Join in Mubarak for President Campaign" and "Mubarak, Jr. Our Next President By Popular Will".

A vulgar buffoon with no base of support amongst the people and just a small gathering of hired hands amongst the regime, a man with no skills and even less potential. As one Arab remarked in Syriana about his ill equipped brother assuming the monarchy: He isn't fit to run a brothel.

And neither is Mubarak. And let us hope, for the sake of Egypt, he never rises above that.