Somalia's Islamists and Ethiopia prepares for war, wasn't it already there?
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Yes, we're smelling this, and now the war is almost here; Somalia is all geared to attack Ethiopia and give spark to Africa's most expected gruesome war. All efforts, though hardly made, failed to revive peace talks between Somalia's powerful Islamists and the interim government. As everybody was expecting the international community to act fast and avoid a disastrous war that could turn the region into an Iraq-like situation, but sadly it turned otherwise. Even the tiniest shred of hope to avoid this prospect is gone. The considerable speculation that Somalia may become the next front in the global war against international terrorism has become a reality. That taste of war seems only to have whetted the appetite for more.
What now?
The inevitability of war hangs over Mogadishu, Somalia's bullet-pocked seaside capital. Unlike the internal anarchy that has consumed the country for 15 years, the looming battle is now with Ethiopia, threatening to further destabilize an already troubled region.
There is no denying that a full scale conflict between the Ethiopians and the Islamists would be disastrous for Somalia, which is already suffering from severe flooding and years of crisis, and for the region as a whole, because many neighboring countries may jump in. And if we talk about US intervention in Somalia, the United States would discover that Somalia's anarchy, which makes the country a fertile ground for Islamic extremists, also makes it an extremely unpredictable arena for military operations. It may be easier in military and geostrategic terms to conduct counterterrorist operations in Somalia than in Afghanistan, but Somalia's noisy internal politics make any sustained military operation a risky proposition, as the Clinton Administration discovered in 1993 when it expanded a humanitarian aid mission into a failed nation-building experiment.
The United States has made considerable progress in its war against international terrorism (as they say in Washington), but this unforeseen event could complicate its goal of eradicating the plague of global terrorism.
The head of the African Union (AU) said,
"African states should send peacekeepers to help Somalia's fragile interim government negotiate with rival Islamists from a position of strength,"
but amid Islamist threats of holy war against "invaders" there have been no offers so far, and Uganda - the only nation that had earlier promised to send its troops - is now presenting conflicting public statements on whether it will deploy its soldiers.
The result of the looming Somalia war, accompanied by its various proxy wars, will have vast significance on the development of Ethiopia and Somalia. Ethiopia and Somalia does not have to make a great coalition like the Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania's East African Community (EAC). But at least having peace and stability is important and the only way forward for both the nations.
Via: IHT
