Sao Paulo versus Brazil

For those who think that Brazil comes down to the Amazon, Rio de Janeiro and beaches, this article will be a shock. There is much more than that in Brazil.

Precisely for this reason that I decided to write this article. My intention here is to contextualize a bit those unfamiliar with Brazil. In this article, which obviously will have a sequel, I will talk about the opposition that the future president Rousseff (Lula's heir) will face over the next four years, with the focus in Sao Paulo, the most populous and wealthiest in Brazil.

Brazil is a democracy since the 80s, but the democratization process was complicated and had as one of the consequences of the emergence of over 30 political parties. However, during the Cardoso administration (1994-2002) became more apparent that there were only two major parties with different ideological visions: the PSDB (Social Democrats) and the Workers Party (Socialist Party). The remaining parties always revolve around these two, either because of ideological affinity, or by economic and political interests.

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Sao Paulo City

Photo by Primevision

With the rise of Lula in 2002, there was also the sommelier of a new form of populism, which saved the Lula administration several times. Scandals likely occurred, but Lula was getting stronger. He fired several allies and even close friends to keep his figure intact and is now the most popular political leader in the world. However, with the victory of Dilma Rousseff, that changes.

If the attack before Lula was "forbidden" (he has 83% approval), his successor hasn’t the same profile than him. Lula felt a representative of the people. Dilma is an administrator.

In this context, although the opposition will not have many powers in Congress, it managed to elect governors in powerful states, especially in the Mid-South and Midwest. The great leader of the opposition will be the governor Geraldo Alckmin.

He is descended from Arabs, but a devout Catholic (many say he is part of Opus Dei), has a profile similar to that of the future president. Although doctor by training, government of São Paulo (1995-2001) ruled as a competent administrator, cut costs and increase investments in infrastructure through privatization.

Besides leaving state finances in balance, is famous for having reduced violence in Sao Paulo (which was once the capital's most violent and Brazil is now one of the capital with one of the lowest homicide rates in Brazil).

It is precisely for these reasons that he will be the third time governor of Sao Paulo.

For those unaware, Sao Paulo state has 44 million inhabitants, is the richest and most industrialized state in Brazil, has better infrastructure, accounts for about 30% of the Brazilian economy (GDP of Sao Paulo is nearly $ 700 billion) and now is the opposition center to the next president.

The clash between Dilma and Alckmin will be quite interesting, since both have a similar profile, with respect to the administration and they are also known as "little" flexible during negotiations.

Of course the first two years, neither will enter into a direct and open conflict. But then what? In 2013, Dilma Rousseff will try to get reelected, and Geraldo Alckmin will be the natural candidate of the opposition.

It will be a clash between managers: the one who manage better, drive better investment and knows how to manipulate the public opinion in his/her favor will the winner. Elections for 2014 just have started...