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Last year we all had to go through the mediation by Thabo Mbeki of the Zimbabwean governmental crisis, and although the former South African President was able to have the three political principals sign two agreements, we have not seen any real unity government take control of Zimbabwe.
Thabo Mbeki labelled his tactics with regard to Mugabe and Zimbabwe as "quiet diplomacy".
What a bag of lies! "Quiet diplomacy" is what happens when a mediator/neighbour doesn’t know what to do in a crisis.
How does this affect the Zimbabwean nation as we know it today?
Mugabe has made no secret of his desire to have the population reduced by 50% and that the 50% that remain are only ZANU PF supporters, members and activists. In short, metamorphosing Zimbabwe into ZANU PFville.
This creeping obstruction of the truth leads to ‘the boiling frog syndrome’.
"The boiling frog story is a widespread anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability of people to react to significant changes that occur gradually. According to contemporary biologists the premise of the story is not literally true; an actual frog submerged and gradually heated will jump out. However, 19th century research experiments appear to corroborate one underlying premise; that a submerged frog will stay still when heated, but only as long as the heating is gradual enough." (Wikipedia)
This veil of secrecy, quiet diplomacy, has cleverly fooled the West and the people of South Africa. It has been so cleverly done that five million Zimbabweans have fled to South Africa under their very noses, almost unnoticed, and certainly ignored by Mbeki's ministers. Whilst some some migrate back and forth, most have become permanent residents of South Africa. What's more that situation will remain or get far worse if Mugabe carries out his next plan to "go it alone".
South Africa, now in the person of Jacob Zuma, seems to be continuing their quiet and diplomatic support of Mugabe and seem paralysed when it comes to doing the right thing.
But also, as Mugabe has people escaping his dictatorship, South Africa stands to gain an awful lot of trained and intelligent people to bolster their industrial and public service sectors.
For South Africa, this is excellent timing as just next year they will be hosting the World Cup Football Championships, and having enough trained and keen professionals can only help in giving the impression that things are well in Southern Africa, even though immediately North of South Africa, there is one of the worst human tragedies in recent years unfolding before our very eyes.
Putting up screens and success stories in an adjoining country will not only keep the world happy, but it will preserve the impression that Africa is ‘on the up’ and ‘recovering’ in the face of the global recession.
Mugabe may not be able to fool all the people all the time, but if he removes the voices of dissent, then he can progress with his and ZANU PF’s aims and goals and by the time the world wakes up to his deception, it will be too late.
Zimbabwe will have lost the majority of its trained, capable and professional workers - and South Africa will have gained the majority of that, whilst a few will go further afield.
Quiet diplomacy has also assisted the outflow of intellectual capital as tertiary educated black Zimbabweans have taken advantage of Affirmative Action on a grand scale in South Africa as businesses have been forced to find black employees to comply with Affirmative Action regulations.
Zuma stands to gain an awful lot by sustaining the "quiet diplomacy" line, although the damage to the Zimbabwean cause will be irreparable, beyond comprehension and will act as a catalyst for many other African countries to follow suit.
Zuma’s continuance of quiet diplomacy gives a rubber stamp to the unemployment in Zimbabwe, the degradation of life in Zimbabwe, and the destructive Mugabe rule in Zimbabwe.
Robb WJ Ellis
The Bearded Man
