Possible Political Implications of Special Tribunal for Lebanon

As previously announced by the UN Secretary-General, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, or the international tribunal for Lebanon as we used to call it in the region, will start its operations on March 1 in The Hague, Netherlands, which is really the capital of the international law and international justice. This tribunal is established to try all those found responsible for the assassination of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri and related political assassinations and terrorist attacks taken place in Lebanon since September 2004.

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Those crimes and attacks, especially the Hariri assassination, are exceptional political crimes constituted a turning point in Lebanon's contemporary political history and maybe the region also, and this is the basis of the UN Security Council series of actions on this question. In this regard, it is worthy of mention that the terrorist attack that killed Mr. Hariri is officially classified as an international affair of the mandate of the Security Council, as a threat to international peace and security.

In this context, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) takes an extreme regional and international importance on the light of the political context of this series of political crimes including the major one of Hariri assassination in particular; and secondly on the light of the primary findings of the UN international independent investigation into these political crimes. In fact, those two factors led to a regional implication in these crimes in terms of a Syrian official role or responsibility in this regard.

Therefore, the STL and its functions, prospective works and results have internationally considered having very important, significant and maybe serious political and even geopolitical implications if the STL indictments went beyond the Lebanese extent, as widely expected.

In this regard, all concerned parties in the region and the world are closely watching the STL, as it is now in the transitional stage to start operating on March 1, 2009. This transitional stage is important, as in which many positions in the tribunal and its attached departments would be filled among other basic tasks for the tribunal to start operating.

In this regard, it was remarkable the appointment of Nick Kaldas to head the investigation at the tribunal stage, as the chief of investigations for the STL. The Arabic-speaking Kaldas has a long expertise in working on major crimes and counter-terrorism in Australia. In addition, he also led the investigation into Australia's first political assassination in 1994. In fact, the most remarkable and significant part of his expertise and professional experience that he worked in Iraq, in 2004 and late 2005, as a senior police adviser to the Iraqi government to assist the Iraqi Special Tribunal prosecuting Saddam Hussein.

This may be a meaningful gesture, or a message to a certain party or in general, about the possible political implications of this tribunal's works, or may be a hint concerning the findings of the UN investigation, or the extent the tribunal's indictments might reach. It is hard to make such conclusions on this question at this stage, but however, at this delicate international level, I, personally, do not believe in coincidences.

Aside from such arguments, inferences or speculations, I think that this tribunal for sure would have major and serious political implications on condition that it has commitment to only justice.