Guinea trapped in martial law, violence, plunder: Is there any way out?

With the protests getting out of control and the head of state in declining health after 21 years at the helm, Guinea stands on the brink of explosion. Guinea's ailing head of state, Lansana Conte, is under pressure as never before as demonstrators paralyze the country with a general strike, demanding his resignation.

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Although Guinea's mineral wealth makes it potentially one of Africa's richest countries, its people are among the poorest in West Africa as entire neighborhoods in the capital haven't had electricity or running water for years. The central bank is in such a bad shape it sometimes turns to the black market to replenish hard currency reserves. Doctors there joke that the best medicine for the sick is Air France - a plane ride out of the country.

With protesters calling for the president to step down, the new measures, which include round-the-clock curfew, are likely to produce even more anger among an already angry population. The strike was called by Guinea's two most powerful unions to protest against deteriorating economic conditions, including rampant inflation, and corruption that resulted in the shutting down of schools, shops and markets across the country.

Speaking on state-owned radio, President Lansana Conte said,

Orders have been given to the heads of the armed forces to take all appropriate measures to defend the people of Guinea from the risk of civil war.

What does the Martial Law mean for Guinea? Two scenarios come to mind:

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1) May be if President Lansana Conte decides to relinquish power to a prime minister who will be the next to "play the game," there is going to be more chaos all over the country. Just consider the fact that new prime minister will have to grant him and his family immunity for past wrongdoings, this is why the dictator (President Conte) named a close ally Eugene Camera to be the next PM, which again triggered the strikes yesterday.

2) If this happens, not only the current civilian leadership but the members of the army will lose their privileges and expose themselves to arrest and prosecution for activities ranging from financial misdemeanors to human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. Will the army sit and watch while all its privileges are revoked? I don't think so.

At the end of the day, the Conte page has not been turned and the recent demonstrations riots have not sounded the sunset of the Conte era and I fear the worst- continued mismanagement of the mineral-rich nation by a small clique of president's men grown rich by pillaging the state. Many families are suffering because of the strike, but I think people are ready to continue the fight. I think there has never been a more appropriate time than now to send a clear signal to the armed forces that the Guinean people, the West African community, the African Union and the international community at large will tolerate neither a military coup nor a continuation of the corrupt and autocratic rule that has crippled the nation and deprived the populace of democratic rights and economic prospects.