Lebanese Civil War Beckoning?

In 1942, Freya Stark visited Lebanon and wrote in his "Letters from Syria", 'The people are all charming to me. They are not really Eastern, or anything: just a poor fringe of a people between Islam and the sea, doomed to be pawns in whatever politics are played here.'

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That is the curse of Lebanon. The, as Stark went, lacks any 'spark of national feeling' for the nation of Lebanon is 'all sects and hatreds and religions'. Decades after the formation of the Lebanese republic, a cohesive Lebanese nationalism remains elusive. Most Lebanese identify first and foremost as Sunni or Druze of Maronite. Such religious tribal nationalism is not a problem in and of itself and it need not lead to civil wars. There are many factional nations that live peacefully: Belgium has seven regional governments and there is no such thing a Belgian nationalism. But Belgian does not descend into civil war or is at the verge of it. This is due to several factors: European civilization, after centuries of devastating wars, has heavily ruled against using arms to solve political problems, the Belgian state has control over its borders, sovereignty and a monopoly on the use of force, but - above all - the sects in Belgian have set up a regional framework that respects that political sphere and individuals of the factions in Belgian.

The Lebanese, regrettable, lack all three: Despite the horrors of the 15-year long civil war (1975-1990) and the promise of Lebanon's political elite to never again fall into such a war, the political parties-cum-militias still too readily are prepared for war and many of them view it as an equally valid politics by other means if need be. Civil war for a second time has not been ruled out and there is a resigned acceptance that to that fact. A political culture that rules out the use of violence by militias has not been deeply embedded. Secondly, the Lebanese state - government and army - do not have control over the entire nation and the idea that the Lebanese army has a monopoly on force is laughable. The army is also torn by sectarian division, would collapse along sectarian lines in case of a civil war, and is weaker than Hezbollah. And, lastly and most devastatingly, Lebanon's politics of zero-sum confessional division only entrenches and, in bad times, embitters sectarianism. Lebanon, unlike Belgian, has not devised a political arrangements that compliments rather than dastardly amplify sectarianism. The Lebanese political elite has failed to produce a political structure that will respect the position of each major sect, reduce the anxiety that one sect will lose power against another, and allow all to thrive within their sphere with the solace that their position in Lebanon is secure. That's what Belgian's seven regional governments do. Each faction is secure in its position and does not worry about the other six.

Lebanon needs such a system. The position of the central government in Beirut should be weaken to nothing more than a care-taker technocratic bureaucracy that administers certain non-partisan duties, like basic infrastructure, and does not even get involved into anything remotely sectarian. The government should be strictly technocratic and mundane. Then there should be regional governments. Two, say, in Mount Lebanon for the Maronites and Druze. West Beirut for the Sunnis. And south Lebanon, like in Tyre, for the Shiites. In each of the regional governments, the sect that is a majority can exercise majority political power in that region and no faction shall encroach on the other and each side may be confident in its position. Lebanon is not made for a central government where all sects will fight for limited political power in a zero-sum game that may descend into street battlers. But Lebanon is in desperate need of devolution, of federalism which allows for regional governments.

Anything short of that and we will continue to see such news of a possible another Lebanese civil war as sectarianism is once again placed into a deadly game of us vs. them and people believe that the only way to secure their position is fight:

Rising prices for weapons suggest that militias other than Hezbollah are rearming, increasing the threat of a civil war.

Fighting will never work. If 15 years of civil war did not solve it the first time, why the second time? Only a devolution of authority to regions will work.