Iraqi spillover - Turkey joins the fray

Bush's excursion in Iraq has been a complete mess from the very start and this has been conceded in virtually every quarter (except of course, the Bush administration.) What started with lofty ideals of 'War on terror' has gradually descended into a proverbial free-for-all.

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Now, the situation has become so bleak that no one even understands who's fighting with whom. As if the situation in the Middle East was not tumultuous enough - after Afghanistan - U.S. somehow managed to make things worse.

After four long years of agony, war in Iraq has engulfed its neighbors as well. Turkey, the only remaining Muslim country of consequence that harbors Democracy, is its latest victim.

As per the latest reports that have come in, hundreds of Turkish troops (600 based on ground estimates) crossed into northern Iraq on Wednesday. They were chasing away Kurdish militias, who have long tormented them from across the border.

Iraqi and U.S. officials have denied the reports, but the fact of the matter is that they virtually have little knowledge or control over the northern parts, which more or less function as semiautonomous Kurdistan.

As the fight between Turkey and PKK ensues, an all out Turkish invasion may not be that far. This fact is more significant in the light of recent attacks by PKK that have forced Turkey's government to bolster its Iraq border with soldiers and tanks.

Turkish forays into Iraq's territory have some serious repercussions in store.

Allies against each other

Turkey, as a member of NATO, is an important ally of the U.S. coalition in Iraq. Kurds, after being persecuted under Saddam Husein, have supported the American invasion from its outset. Any tension between the two allies would seriously undermine U.S. efforts to restore some sanity in the region, where bloodshed has become mundane.

Already, American diplomats and generals are engaged in frantic behind-the-scenes discussions with both the parties, trying to stop Turkey invading Iraq.

Loss of stability

Ironically, Kurdistan is one region that has a semblance of stability post-Saddam. International interests in its vast oil reserves and a relatively democratic pattern of governance have created a region, what many tout as 'the other Iraq.'

Turkish attack would wipe clean the hopes of a developed region within Iraq and will destroy what could be the one saving grace for Americans.

Oil factor

If Ankara gives the go-ahead to an all-out invasion, another problem will arise and have serious consequences for the economies around the world. What is being referred to here is oil.

The northern region is oil-rich and a fight there would immediately push the global oil prices up. Oil prices have already risen on the reports of Turkish 'hot-pursuit.' The impact would not be significant, but oil-addicted U.S. will not like such a scenario.

Iranian invasion

Another devastating scenario could be Iranian invasion. Certainly, if Turkey was to invade, what is there to stop Iran? Iran has got a president in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who might be eying up such a scenario, more so after his clash with the Americans.

Break up of Iraq

The most devastating of all consequences is the potential of Iraq's disintegration. As it is, Iraq faces deep ethnic divisions. The Shia, Sunni and Kurds within Iraq, rarely saw eye to eye. More specifically, there have been significant issues between Arabs and northern Kurds. A war with Turkey would be a final nail in the coffin of the dream of seeing a unified democratic Iraq.

Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia will benefit from such a division. They will persuade the respective communities to side with them and annex new territories. Turkey will be a loser in such a situation, because if Iraq were to break, Turkey's Kurds would certainly detach from the parent country and form a recognized Kurdistan.

The political situation in Turkey is dicey. The country is battling hard, trying to retain its secular character amidst growing political influence of Islam. In such conditions, it is a remote possibility indeed that Ankara will stretch beyond its borders. But what happens after Americans leave?

Shias and Sunnis are vying for American throats in Iraq. U.S. cannot have Kurds join forces against them. At the same time, it cannot distance itself from Turkey. Serious dilemma is in the making. Step-in now Americans, lest this one gets out of hands too.