WHAT’S UP: Retailers are expected to report dismal same-store sales figures on Wednesday, providing the first full gauge of consumer behavior since the financial meltdown began. The only bright spots will be discounters and wholesale clubs as customers focus on bare-bone essentials.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN: With consumers cutting back even more, the outlook for the holiday season and for the industry is becoming darker. Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, said the financial turmoil may lead him to reduce his holiday same-store sales growth forecast to 1.5 percent to 2 percent, down from the original 2.5 percent. Same-store sales are sales at stores opened at least a year and are considered a key indicator of a retailer’s health.

WHAT’S NEXT: Stores could further slash their holiday orders, which were already below last year’s levels. The retail industry, which had already suffered a string of bankruptcies and stores closings, could also see further consolidation. Burt P. Flickinger III, managing director of Strategic Research Group, expects retailers to see the biggest shakeout in the industry from now until the end of 2010 since the 1999-2002 period.