Does Zuma Understand The Real Mugabe Threat?

I do tend to ignore stories about 'breakthroughs' as more often than not the 'breakthrough' amounts to nothing and was actually just one of the negotiators shifting in his seat.

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"A second round of talks between Zimbabwean rivals President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai was due to get underway Thursday in Harare amid reports of a breakthrough. South African President Jacob Zuma, who is mediating the talks on behalf of the 15-nation Southern African Development Community, has been in Zimbabwe since Tuesday to try to resolve a long-running dispute in the country's shaky power-sharing government over the implementation of reforms. Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara all expressed satisfaction at the progress made on key sticking points when they emerged from around two hours of talks with Zuma on Wednesday, but gave no details.

Reports of a breakthrough came after Zuma met later with Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, Attorney General Johannes Tomana and Tsvangirai's deputy agriculture minister designate Roy Bennett.

The three men are at the centre of some of the worst wrangling between Mugabe's ZANU PF and Tsvangirai's MDC. Bennett was arrested in February last year and charged over a purported plot to topple Mugabe. He is currently being tried by the High Court for possessing weapons for the purposes of terrorism, banditry and insurgency. The MDC sees the charges as a plot to keep the outspoken white farmer out of government and has demanded for the past year that Mugabe swear him into his post. The MDC is also demanding that Mugabe rescind his unilateral appointment of Gono and Tomana to their positions. Both are staunch Mugabe allies.

Several sources close to the negotiations, who did not wish to be identified, said a compromise had been reached, which would see Tomana step down, Gono remain and Bennett sworn into his position pending the outcome of his trial."

If that is the case, Mugabe still holds the high ground.

The loss of Gono is negligible - and Mugabe will quickly circumvent everyone by unilaterally appointing another sympathiser. Tomana remaining is perhaps a 50/50 thing as he is not the legal mind that Mugabe thinks he is, and Bennett to only be sworn in pending the outcome of his terrorism trial would seem the natural course of events.

"If confirmed, it would represent a coup for Zuma, who is under pressure to achieve success in Zimbabwe after a series at home.

South Africans are dismayed by revelations that the polygamist fathered a child out of wedlock last year as well as by his inability to curb infighting in his African National Congress party. Even if the parties reached a compromise on Bennett, Tomana and Gono, a raft of issues remain, including the drafting of a new constitution, the reform of repressive media laws and the gazetting last month by a Mugabe minister of controversial new black empowerment laws. The MDC accuses ZANU PF of reneging on its commitments under the Global Political Agreement, the agreement signed in 2008 which resulted in the creation of thpower-sharing government. ZANU PF, for its pasrt, holds Tsvangirai responsible for failing to persuade Western governments to lift targeted sanctions against ZANU PF's top brass."

Zuma may have made some 'progress' but if you look at it, Mugabe really hasn't given in too much at all. Gono, we believe, was ready to leave anyway, Tomana is still unilaterally appointed and Bennett remains in limbo.

Sanctions remain in place - and are not the responsibility or under the control of Morgan Tsvangirai.

As one might expect, the news wires are crawling with stories about Zuma's visit to Harare and the possible breakthrough.

"South Africa is encouraged by progress made in Zimbabwe's power-sharing talks, brokered by President Jacob Zuma and aimed at ending a political crisis that has lef to economica ruin, his spokesman said on Thursday.

Zuma is in neighbouring Zimbabwe to help rescue a fragile unity government formed by bitter adversaries President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai last year to end a stalemate over disputed elections.

On Thursday Zuma, who held talks with Zimbabwe's political leaders the day before, met negotiators from Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and Mugabe's ZANU PF party.

"The discussions were quite encouraging, in the sense that President Zuma got an impression that parties were as keen as we are to move things forward," Zuma's spokesman Vincent Magwenya told journalists. Zuma was due to meet Mugabe and Tsvangirai again for a final round of talks later on Thursday."

I am not convinced. There is nothing in place that would make sure that Mugabe makes the agreed changes. As I suggested earlier in this posting, there is nothing that would stop Mugabe from unilaterally appointing someone else in Gono's place - and there is nothing that will force Mugabe to swear in Bennett after his trial.

Even if there was a signed agreement, we know how Mugabe handles these - he just ignores them!

"The party is particularly unhappy about central bank Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General Johannes Tomana, both Mugabe loyalists, remaining in their posts and is also angry over the president's refusal to swear-in MDC treasurer-general Roy Bennett as deputy agriculture minister.

Zuma met Tomana, Gono and Bennett separately on Wednesday.

Regional grouping SADC appointed Zuma to mediate in the crisis. He took over from former South African President Thabo Mbeki who brokered the original deal in late 2008.

Western donors have held back aid essential to help rebuild Zimbabwe's economy, saying the 86-year-old Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980, must first implement concrete human rights and democratic reforms."

For me, it is obvious that Mugabe will agree to one thing and live by another in a blatant attempt to prolong his rule.

"President Robert Mugabe has agreed during his two-day meetings with South African President Jacob Zuma to give back ministers from Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC party functions and responsibilities he had unilaterally stripped them of, a report said Thursday.

Principals to the Global Political Agreement have given party negotiators up to the end of this month to conclude all discussions as it emerged yesterday that they had agreed on how to proceed on three key implementation issues."

This may be all very well, but what is stopping Mugabe from carrying out another similar act as soon as Zuma's back is turned? Mugabe has no respect for Zuma, SADC, the AU and any other international body and certainly doesn't care about the like of the MDC.

Before Zuma leaves Zimbabwe, he should have in place some sort of limitation of Mugabe's unilateral capabilities.

"The source, who spoke on condition that he remained anonymous, said the amendments gazetted two weeks ago, which saw several MDC ministers being stripped of their powers will now be shelved.

"The amendments which were gazetted will now be shelved," said the source. "There is also an agreement pertaining to the issue of (central bank governor Gideon) Gono, (Attorney General Johannes) Tomana and Tsvangirai top aide Roy) Bennett and a decision will be announced," said the source declining to disclose further details."

Does anyone else notice that the reversal of the unilateral stripping of MDC ministers' powers is only to be 'shelved' - which suggests that they can be resurrected at any time. Why are they not abandoned completely and repealed?

I do believe that Mugabe will repeat the exercise, just as soon as it suits him to do so.

Robb WJ Ellis

The Bearded Man